Crime Opportunity Theory is wrong: Because it's (a) not about opportunities at all - only truisms (b) it's not a theory (c) it does not explain causality (d) its just a description of the elements of a successful crime being committed - something that cannot exist in advance of itself happening, which means it cannot be an opportunity (e) that means its an irrefuatable truism, which means its pseudoscience.
The figure below does not, as its originators claim, represent an opportunity. It's a Ratortunity because the event is over by this stage if the offender is KNOWN to be more capable than the guardianship. As every dictionary definition will tell you, an opportunity exists before the event - not after it. And yet Crime Opportunity Theory tells us that ratortunity is not only a cause of crime, but the most important cause.
Spoof on Crime Science faith in ratortunity as a cause of crime reveals that many a true word is written in jest: visit the Crime Science blog: click here to check out the all important eleventh principle.
Saturday, 28 April 2012
Monday, 23 April 2012
Pragmatism or Quackery?
Dysology
TOWARDS A SCIENCE OF VERACITY THROUGH REVEALING MYTHS AND FALLACIES AND UNDERSTANDING REASONS FOR BAD SCHOLARSHIP, WEIRD BELIEFS AND STRANGELY UNEXPLORED AREAS OF RESEARCH
Opening topic:
Pragmatic quackery or a rational way to proceeed?
When practitioners in any field – be it economics, ‘self-improvement’, medicine, nutrition, policing or crime reduction say that they are less concerned with problems with the theory that underpins their practise than with the pragmatic need to tackle a particular problem in way that they ‘know’ is effective should our sceptical alarm bells start ringing?
Why Not Join the Dysology dscussion group at Linked[in} today: http://www.linkedin.com/groupsDirectory?results=&sik=1335182640833
Should individual scientists care about this? What about religious leaders? What about political leaders?
Research finds believers are less likely to believe in science. Really? OK once we've scored some cheap humor points with that finding it does raise one interesting question. Namely, how might science gain more respect among those who believe in unevidenced entities and who let their belief in those entities run aspects of their lives and thoughts?
Sunday, 22 April 2012
There is a very useful debate among police, professors and students regarding my argument that ratortunity (the Routine Activities Theory) notion based upon the RAT crime triangle is a harmful criminology and crime science myth because it cannot possibly be a cause of crime and is diverting our endeavors away from understanding crime causality in favour of over complicating truisms in order to dress them up as causal explanations.
If you are not already a member of Linked[in] you will need to sign up to see it. The debate is among those in the American Society of Criminology group in Linked[in]. If you are a member and signed in to Linked[in] then the link to the debate is here.
If you are not already a member of Linked[in] you will need to sign up to see it. The debate is among those in the American Society of Criminology group in Linked[in]. If you are a member and signed in to Linked[in] then the link to the debate is here.
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Official Quackery
The Vitamin C and Iron Myth: Death by Quackery?
Research across the board shows that the evidence is at best inconclusive regarding whether or not vitamin C can help us to better absorb iron from non heme iron sources such as spinach and other plants (see Sutton 2011).
Official advice that vitamin C is known to enhance the iron absorption from plant and other non heme sources is wrong. This advice is wrong because the overall evidence, from the results of many properly conducted trials is that we have a mixed bag of disconfirming and confirming research findings. In sum, evidence of the iron absorbing benefits of vitamin C (ascorbic acid) in our diet is at best inconclusive.
Unfortunately, the websites promoting vitamin c in this way ignore all the disconfirming evidence.
In light of the facts revealed in a paper published by Best Thinking (Sutton 2011), I am grateful to the USDA for deleting their misleading spreadsheet from the Internet, which claimed that drinking Florida grapefruit juice would help humans to absorb two to four times as much iron from spinach as would otherwise be possible.
Unfortunately the US Government Office of Dietary Supplements (ODS) continues to claim that vitamin C will increase the iron absorption form non heme iron sources, such as spinach, as (ironically) does the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and prevention: http://www.cdc.gov/nutrition/everyone/basics/vitamins/iron.html. Unsurprisingly Wikipedia makes the same erroneous claims.
Many other websites - including one run by MIT (http://web.mit.edu/athletics/sportsmedicine/wcrminerals.html) also continue to boldly claim that vitamin C helps with iron absorption.
Since low iron levels - linked to poor diet - kill people in large numbers (see http://www.bestthinking.com/thinkers/science/social_sciences/sociology/mike-sutton?tab=blog&blogpostid=9942,9942 ) there should be more care taken to get the facts right.
Here are just few of the very many web sites that still promote the fallacy (or at least to promote vitamin C in this role when the evidence is inconclusive) some are giving advice on cancer - other are for children's diets.. Just Google ‘iron vitamin c’ and the list seems endless:
http://www.parentingscience.com/iron-absorption.html
http://www.ehow.com/list_7165582_foods-block-iron.html
http://coloncancer.about.com/od/nutritionanddiet/a/irondefanemia.htm
If poor nutrition directly kills, and in other cases takes years from life spans, it seems reasonable to speculate that erroneous nutrition advice, if relied upon, might do likewise.
We can only hope that not a single one of the tens of millions of lost years of life globally - and the many hundreds sometimes thousands of deaths that happen as a direct result of iron deficiency each year in the USA - are due to that earlier bad science promoted by the USDA. And we can only hope that the hundreds of thousands of deaths occurring each year on Earth (Stoltzfus 2003) from iron deficiency are not due to current US Government and private sector bad science promotion of vitamin C as a miracle way for humans to better absorb iron non heme iron sources, such as spinach. Because,surely, that should be 'criminal' quackery.
References
Stoltzfus RJ . (2003) Iron deficiency: global prevalence and consequences. Food Nutr Bull. 2003 Dec;24(4 Suppl):S99-103
Sutton, M. (2011) SPIN@GE USA Beware of the Bull: The United States Department of Agriculture is Spreading Bull about Spinach, Iron and Vitamin C on the Internet: http://www.bestthinking.com/articles/science/chemistry/biochemistry/spin-ge-usa-beware-of-the-bull-the-united-states-department-of-agriculture-is-spreading-bull-about-spinach-iron-and-vitamin-c-on-the-internet
Sunday, 11 March 2012
DOG IN THE MOON

Do wolves howl at it because there is a dog in full moon?
Check out bias and pattern recognition - over on Best Thinking it leads to all kinds of fallacies, myths, bad research, bad eyewitness testimony and money making on eBay.
Reference:
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
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